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叶子楣
注册时间: 2006-10-09
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美国财政的两个极端
作者：潮阳之窗
美国是世界公认的第一超级大国，其综合国力、经济总量以及强大财力迄今还无人可及。但在最近的短短数年间，美国国家财政状况却出现了自二战以来最为严重的恶化，财政赤字和贸易赤字“双赤字”日趋扩大。自里根时代开始，已由世界最大债权国沦为世界最大债务国。这已成为美国经济与社会的最大隐患，并威胁着世界经济的稳定和发展，引起了国际社会的广泛关注和普遍担心。
在上世纪战后５０年代到７０年代的世界格局中，美国凭借其强大的政治、经济和军事实力，一直扮演着超级大国的角色。但进入８０年代，实行凯恩斯经济政策后，美国的预算赤字急剧增加、国债猛增，国际收支状况明显恶化。到８０年代中期以后，美国已经由世界最大债权国变为最大债务国。上世纪末期，在克林顿政府多年努力下，美国财政终于在１９９８年度“扭亏为盈”，并在２０００年度出现了２３７０亿美元的盈余。然而好景不长，随着经济衰退和布什上台后采取的大规模减税政策，导致美国政府财政形势又急剧恶化。２００４年度美国的财政赤字达到４２２０亿美元，占ＧＤＰ的３．６％；贸易赤字在２００３年也达到５３０７亿美元，占ＧＤＰ的４．９％。美国国会报告预测，到２０１４年美国的财政赤字总额将达２．３万亿美元。
美国的债务问题令人提心吊胆。根据美国“股神”巴菲特的测算，美国目前的资产总额为５０万亿美元，而美国目前内外债总计已达４２万亿美元。按目前债务的增长速度，顶多还有２年左右的时间，美国的资产就会全部被“买光”。由于债务的增长速度远大于资产的增长速度，美国可能很快会走到“卖无可卖”的地步。美国总审计长戴维•沃尔克披露，目前每个美国人的平均负债为１４．５万美元，折合每个全职工作者平均每人负债为３５万美元。这些负债只是把美国的财政赤字和贸易赤字平摊在每个人或每个全职工作者身上，并不包括美国公民信用卡、房贷等个人负债。美国是一个奉行消费主义的国家，也是一个靠借债过日子的社会。８０年代初期美国居民家庭的储蓄率还在１０％以上，但到２００４年已下降到只有０．９％，美国人平均每挣１００美元，能剩下的还不到１美元。所以有人说，美国的繁荣是债务支撑下的繁荣。从美国的财政体制看，联邦、州和地方三级财政都有较强的独立性，联邦主要靠财政转移支付控制地方，州和市一级的财政状况相对而言更加困难。特别是由于布什政府推行减税计划和各项开支的上升，使得本来就艰难的地方财政变得更加捉襟见肘。近些年，美国先后有４０多个州发生财政危机，导致很多地方的公共设施整修建设停摆。在美国许多城市较少见到新建项目，一些新建项目也进展缓慢，一些老城市陈旧的基础设施得不到及时维修改造。我们实习所在的州、市，几十年没有大的变化，我们发现纽约、华盛顿等地竟还大量使用老式木质电线杆。哈特福德市的财政局长告诉我，他们的办公楼已使用了近百年，而且被洪水浸泡过，已不安全，但至今也没有钱去改造或新建。该市的信息产业局的负责人告诉我，因为缺少资金，计算机技术的推广应用进展缓慢。
造成美国财政今日之困境，既有大规模减税的因素，也有反恐战争、伊拉克战争拖累的因素；既有社会保障开支飙升的因素，也有制造业衰退的因素，还有飓风等自然灾害的因素等等。对于美国日益严峻的“双赤字”，有位美国专家根据“金融树生态体系”分析指出，现在美国这棵金融树树干的两侧已严重失衡，这种严重失衡的状况若长期得不到修正，生态环境一旦发生重大恶化，整棵树将有可能倒毙。作为全球最大的经济载体和金融体系，美国这棵大树一旦倒了，肯定会殃及全世界。还有些专家学者甚至预言，随着美国股市泡沫的破灭，一旦房地产泡沫再破灭，“美元危机”将无可挽救，全球经济危机也将不可避免。日本的经济学家也认为目前美国经济的稳定增长已到了极限，通货膨胀已迫在眉睫。眼下最为紧迫的是，再过几年，美国二战后“婴儿潮”时代出生的人将大量退休，养老金将严重入不敷出，据估计社会保险和医疗开支将从现在的每年７８９亿美元飙升至１．５万亿美元。对于这个问题，美联储前主席格林斯潘多次表示担忧，指出美国财政将无法承担未来社会保障支出的重负，这可能会给美国经济和社会造成严重后果。
现在美国的各级政府为了缓解财政压力，已经到了有点饥不择食的地步。美国已有３６个州将博彩业纳入公开合法的轨道，成为美国服务业中发展最快的行业。现在美国人周末通常去３个地方：大多数人去教堂；少数富人开飞机、驾游艇旅游度假；再就是泡在赌场里。康涅狄格州过去一直被视为全美最富裕的州之一，现在建了３个美国单体建筑面积最大的赌场。因为美国的实力和经济对世界具有强大的影响力，所以每当其经济低迷或者面临困境时，就会在股票市场、外汇市场、期货市场和能源市场上做文章，操纵市场价格，从中赚取巨额的好处，有人称这种现象为美国“通吃世界”。
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OTC
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Public Auction
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