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叶子楣
注册时间: 2006-10-09
帖子: 3
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英国金融时报 容凯尔：我留给亚洲的八个预言
这是我的最后一篇亚洲专栏，因为我将在近期退休，离开工作了39年的英国《金融时报》。这是个难得的机会，可以总结我多年来报道、评论亚洲事务所得到的一些教训和感想，并破除那个奇怪的神话。我还将冒险做几个预言。
首先，并非整个东亚都是经济奇迹：当今所谓的亚洲经济奇迹，完全就是一个有关中国的故事。本世纪以来，中国贡献了亚洲发展中国家（包括印度在内）一半以上的经济增长。表现令人失望的国家多得令人吃惊。作为亚洲最大的经济体，日本仍在努力从长达10年的经济萧条中复苏。地区第三大经济体韩国正在困境中挣扎；台湾和泰国的表现也远低于它们的潜力。
其次，中国并没有超乎常人的计划。始终不变的是，共产党依然坚决地保持它对权力的垄断。实际上，其领导权的政治合法性，取决于它能否让尽可能多的人生活水平不断提高。对那个目标的追求，本质上是实用主义性质的，而且采取的是试错法。正如在中国经常发生的那样，当存在许多不确定性时，即便对那些当权者而言，试错法也是一个谨慎的选择。这是投资组合理论在政治上的应用。其中最重大的问题是，经济发展最终将从政治上把这个国家引向何方。
另外两个因素，使得治理中国变成了一件很悬的事情。其一，是中央政府一直试图控制那些“不听话”的地方官员——他们为了让自己管辖的地区和自己更为富有，在执行中央指令时往往过于流于表面。其二，是既得利益群体日益增长的影响。在一个改革不彻底的领导层的管理之下，既得利益群体正在更强力地维护自身利益。游说政治如今在北京的重要性，至少已和华盛顿一样，这就是为什么人们往往很难解读中国政治的原因。
第三，经济支配亚洲外交。在这个因不信任和历史积怨而分裂的地区，贸易和投资（特别是以跨境生产网络形式出现的投资）所创造的相互依赖，是地区稳定的最强大支柱。不管政治分歧有多大，亚洲国家从未允许它威胁到它们共同追求的出口带动型经济增长。鉴于外交选择有限，人们只能寄望于经济逻辑继续发挥主导作用，期望亚洲不要遭遇像诺曼??安杰尔 (Norman Angell) 1913年预言一样的命运。安杰尔当时曾预言称，欧洲国家在经济上的相互依赖已经达到前所未有的水平，以至于互相之间不可能发动战争。
第四，即便亚洲有可能组成一个紧密整合的经济集团，那也需要很长一段时间。除了国家之间相互怀疑之外，中国和日本（或许还有印度）在地区影响力方面的竞争，使得它们难以达成重大协议。此外，亚洲各国在主权方面的高度戒备，以及许多国家内部制度的虚弱，阻碍了进一步整合所需的制度性合作。
第五，中国“软实力”的重要性被高估。北京在全世界的多数外交举措，首先是受到经济需求的推动，其中最重要的，是中国在能源及原材料供应安全方面的需求。中国能够抢到美国前面，更多是因为华盛顿相对而言忽视了必需的政治营销技巧。
真正有效的软实力，其基础是内在诱人的国家理念、原则和价值。尽管布什政府已经肆意地浪费了那些资产，但我猜，如果有选择的机会，多数亚洲人仍将选择失去光泽的美国梦，而非当代中国严厉的约束、无情的唯物主义和精神贫乏。
第六，在亚洲眼中，欧洲只是一个产品销售市场和奢侈品产地，除此之外，欧洲与亚洲并不相干。在欧洲，那些幻想亚洲未来的发展将基于欧洲“模式”的人，实际上是在欺骗自己。我们将发现，亚洲唯一愿意拥抱的欧洲模式，乃是模特的猫步。
第七，西方对制造业转向东方的抱怨将减少。如果你除此之外的唯一选择就是依靠土地和土地之下的东西维持生计，在这种情况下，制造业才是你的选择。自动化正在减少制造业的就业机会，竞争残酷，而且真正的高额利润处在生产设计、营销和品牌推广等环节。这就是为什么从中国到印度，所有企业都渴望超越敲打金属的简单业务。
第八，限制言论自由的做法，在经济上和政治上都是错误的。多数亚洲政府都梦想创造一个有能力进行基本创新的“知识型”社会。然而，正如韩国的伪造人类克隆等丑闻所显示那样，它们前面的路还非常遥远。几乎所有出生于亚洲的诺贝尔科学桂冠的得主，其所获荣誉都源自他们在西方的工作，生动地说明了这一点。
真正的创新，往往来自偶然的发现，而且强烈地挑战现有秩序。但是，即便在那些强权政体不惩罚此种行为的国家，恪守等级的态度和归顺服从的传统，往往培育出知识上的因循守旧。要想改变这种状况，并非高额科研预算就能完成的。
在过去28个月中，这个专栏让我得到了作为新闻从业者的最高特权，亲眼见证了一段正在形成的历史。它很刺激，经常令我惊讶，有时有趣，有时滑稽。我也经常从读者的智慧中受益。其中一些读者成了我的朋友。祝他们好运。也祝愿亚洲好运。
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※ 来源:．两全其美网 http://lqqm.net [FROM: 220.194.54.72]
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