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davidxding - 2005-10-03, 06:17
发表主题: 金融树(FinancialTree)演绎人民币汇率走势及中美金融

金融树FinancialTree演绎人民币汇率走势及中美金融

国际著名金融专家丁大卫教授

（本文是根据我在9月11日在上海举行的2005中国（上海）期货投资国际论坛上的演讲删减改写而成。当时大会组委会给我的命题是——金融树下的人民币汇率走势及其影响。受篇幅所限，大量文字、幻灯片和图像被省略。未完待续……）

金融树(FinancialTree)演绎企业/经济/汇率/国际金融发展规律

根据丁大卫金融树理论体系，地球是有生命的，是圆的，所以能转动，所以是全方位平衡的。因此，地球上的所有事物，也必须遵循地球的规律，也必须是平衡的，否则，灾难就有可能发生。

生态指生物与其生存环境之间的关系。任何事物的出现及其表现都是其内部体系与外部体系相互作用的结果，外部体系的作用往往大于内部体系的作用。因此，不了解事物的生态规律和环境，就不可能了解事物本身。丁大卫金融树体系是研究、分析、改善企业/经济/金融生态/体系的最好方法和工具。同样是电子商务、传销、知识产权、证券市场，在中国和在美国却有着截然不同的表现或结果。这其中的原因就是它们的生态环境不同。

经过20多年的潜心研究与丰富实践，本人终于发明创造出一整套，革命性的、具有世界知识产权、前所未有、全球最先进、全人类都将从中受益匪浅的金融树体系。

作为管理体系和工具, 金融树管理体系(FinancialTree Management System)能让决策者同时从过去、现在、未来、内部、外部、宏观和微观的角度一目了然地看到企业和经济的现有问题/风险和潜在问题/风险，并自然地找到相应的系统解决方案。

作为理论体系，金融树理论体系(FinancialTree Theory System) 将会计、财务、金融市场/产品、企业发展、战略管理、宏观、微观等所有涉及企业和经济发展的死的、静态的、封闭的、支离破碎的理论集成化、系统化、数字化、协同化、自然化为一个融会贯通的、开放式的有机(活的动态)整体，就像一棵树。

作为教学体系，金融树教学体系(FinancialTree Teaching System) 能让普通人用一两天的时间学会几年的东西—— 会计、财务管理、金融市场/产品、企业发展、战略管理、企业/个人投资理财等等，且终生难忘。

金融树企业发展模式 (FinancialTree Corporate Development Model) 图（略）

金融树经济发展模式 (FinancialTree Economic Development Model) 图（略）

金融树金融发展模式 (FinancialTree Financial Developmnet Model) 图（略）

金融树证券发展模式 (FinancialTree Securities Development Model) 图（略）

人民币稳健持续升值，必然趋势

从长远看，一国货币汇率的升降主要取决于该国货币的价值（即购买力）与其它货币价值的关系，即购买力平价（ＰＰＰ）。一国货币价值的升降主要取决该国经济实力的升降，尤其是该国对外出口贸易的升降与其它国家经济实力升降的关系。

从建国初期的1952年到1984年，人民币官方汇率一直被人为设定在１美元＝1.49—２.46元人民币之间。这一严重高估的人民币汇率，尽管保护了当时我国的稚嫩工业，控制了进出口、资本流动和经济波动等，但却严重影响了中国产品在国际市场的竞争力和出口贸易。改革开放以来，人民币兑美元汇率从1985年的1:3.20左右一直下降到此次升值前的1:8.27左右。

同早期台币大幅贬值极大地激增了台湾的出口贸易和外汇储备一样，人民币的大幅贬值极大地激发了中国企业的制造和出口能力，因此，中国的外贸出口一路飙升，从出口小国变成出口大国。中国的外汇储备急剧增加，并已位居世界前位。中国已取代日本成为美国最大的贸易顺差国。由此可见汇率的魔法。汇率的变化可以很容易地使一个国家的产品和服务变得比其它国家的产品和服务更便宜，更受欢迎，也可以很容易地使一个贸易逆差国变成顺差国，反之亦然。

就目前国际主要货币购买力、国际贸易收支平衡及外汇储备而言，人民币汇率被远远低估，因此面临巨大的升值压力。

从金融树经济模型，我们可以看到当一国经济经历了较快的工业化发展之后，迅速提升的国力导致本币的购买力迅速增加，并导致它与其它货币购买力的失衡，为了保持本国经济，尤其是本国经济与其它经济的平衡/平稳发展，就必须对汇率进行调整。这种情况经常发生，如上世纪中期美元兑英镑的大幅升值；上世纪 80年代日元、台币兑美元的大幅升值等。

人民币汇率正在并将继续像美元兑英镑、日元兑美元、台币兑美元等一样发生变化，这是大势和内在经济规律所趋，不过只是程度、速度不同而已。根据中国的国情和需要，人民币汇率升值的程度和速度应该是渐缓的，否则将给中国经济，尤其是外向型经济带来沉重打击，给人民币升值投机商带来暴富机会。

显而易见，人民币汇率升值对中国出口不利，出口利润率低的企业和产品也将被逐渐淘汰出局，出口下滑对经济增长不利。但从国际角度看，由于人民币的升值，中国的国力增加了（如果以美元计算），中国国力在世界的排名也将因此而提升，国民会感到越来越富裕了，尤其是当购买国外的产品和服务时。

总之，人民币升值是中国经济实力提升的体现，但升值过快、过多不利于经济的进一步发展，因此，我们要像自然界的树一样，在成长中求平衡，在平衡中求成长，只有这样，才能根深叶茂，不断发展壮大。

美赤字不减，可导致全球经济倒退、混乱及人民币大幅升值

根据美国总审计长披露，目前每个美国人的平均负债为＄145, 000或每个全职工作者的平均负债为＄350, 000。这些负债只是把美国的财政赤字和贸易赤字平摊在每个人或每个全职工作者身上，并不包括信用卡、房贷等个人负债。这些负债每天都在上升。美国人平均每挣＄100，能剩下的还不到＄1。

2000年，＄2360亿的政府财政余额变成了去年的＄4120亿的政府赤字。政府只能靠借债度日。日本是购买美国债券最多的国家，中国近期购买的美国债券也越来越多。

作为一个国家，美国每天花在进口的服装、汽车等物品上的钱，要比除美国外的整个世界从美国进口的物品多＄19亿。

今年美国的贸易赤字有望达到＄6800亿，换句话说美国从其它国家进口的东西比其它国家从美国进口的东西多达＄6800亿。根据美方统计，其与中国的贸易逆差为＄1620亿。目前，中国是美国最大的贸易逆差国，其次是日本，为＄750亿。

事实上，美国的经济运转很大程度上依赖于日本，甚至中国等国家的中央银行不断的给它提供资金。一旦外来的现金流断了，美国经济就无法正常运转，就必然发生美元及美元资产的大幅贬值，美国人民生活水平下降。此外，由于全球经济很大程度上是以美元为坐标的，因此，美国经济大衰退一定会导致全球经济的倒退和混乱，其中包括人民币汇率大幅升值，因为人民币汇率大幅升值对减少美国与中国的贸易逆差有着直接的，立竿见影的效果。

日本、台湾曾经与美国的巨大贸易顺差，很大程度上是通过美元相对日元和台币的大幅贬值消减的。日元从当初的1美元等于360日元到上世纪80年代后期的1美元等于100多日元。台币兑美元的固定汇率从1960年的40兑1美元一直维持到1973年2月，美国宣布美元贬值20%为止。之后，台币持续攀升。

生态环境的根本变化及金融资产的性质是导致美国从2000年＄2360亿的财政余额变成了去年的＄4120亿的政府赤字的根本原因。纳斯达克股指从 2000年的5000多点跌至2002年未的1000多点标志着美国整体金融资产价值的大幅缩水。9/11、美国出兵及持续占领伊拉克等事件导致美国财政生态环境不断恶化。近期飓风带来的损失对美国的财政赤字无疑是雪上加霜。

根据金融树理论体系，美国这棵金融树树干的两侧严重失衡，如果不是树根牢固及树干的良好弹性和灵活性，树干早已夭折。这种严重失衡的状况若长期得不到修正，生态环境一旦发生重大变化，尤其是突发性根本变化，整棵树将有可能倒塌。美国这棵大树一旦倒了，一定会殃及全世界。

美国的财政赤字看来主要由美国政府和美国人民自己解决。解决的方法主要是改变和改善美国财政的生态环境和机制。美国的贸易赤字单靠美国是很难解决的，因此，通过提高人民币汇率降低中美贸易顺差是在意料之中的事。

不断膨胀的美国赤字，将不断削减美国经济抵抗风险的能力。然而，灾难并不是不可避免，但需要美国政府及美国人民做出艰难而痛苦的抉择，因为它意味着美国生活方式的改变、美国生活水平和美元购买力的下降。

中国尚无资格发生系统性金融危机

金融危机指的是金融资产或金融机构的危机，如股灾、机构倒闭等。而系统性金融危机则是那些波及整个金融体系乃至整个经济体系的危机，比如1930年代引发西方经济大萧条的美国金融危机；1990年代导致日本经济萎靡不振的日本金融危机；1997年下半年袭击东南亚的亚洲金融危机；及1994年底爆发的墨西哥比索危机等。这些危机都是从一种金融市场波及到另外一种金融市场，如从股市到债市、外汇、房地产甚至整个经济体系。中国不仅尚无可能、而且尚无资格发生系统性金融危机，原因诸多，但可概括归纳为如下四个方面：

一、系统性金融危机往往发生在金融经济、金融系统、金融资产比较繁荣的市场化国家和地区。危机来自繁荣，没有繁荣，哪来危机？同样的原因，在经济发展落后的非洲国家，根本不存在金融危机的问题。根据我发明的金融树生态体系理论，金融经济（树冠），是建立在农业经济（树根）和工业经济（树干）的基础上。目前的中国虽然已经相当成功地实现了农业经济（树根）向基础工业经济（树干）的转型，但距树冠经济，即金融经济还相差甚远。金融资产在中国总资产中的比重甚小，中国也尚未建立系统的金融体系，各金融市场及产品的关联性不强。而金融体系中的系统性，正是系统性金融危机发生的前提。

二、系统性金融危机往往发生在金融市场市场化、国际化程度比较高的国家和地区。与上述已经发生过金融危机的国家相比，中国金融市场的市场化、国际化程度还很低，中国金融市场的大门不仅尚未对国际资本敞开，而且对国内民间资本也是紧闭的。中国金融市场的整个布局及发展基本掌控在政府手中。

三、系统性金融危机往往发生在大量金融资产被严重高估且流动性非常强的情况下。比如经历了日元大幅升值后，1980年代末的日本，从日元到房地产再到股市等，几乎所有资产都被严重高估，因此危机和全面资产价值缩水在所难免。同发达国家相比，发展中国家多数资产，其中包括中国的人民币是被低估的。可以说，一个国家从不发达变为发达，就是其货币和其它资产相对其它国家的货币和其它资产升值的过程，目前的中国正处在这一过程中。此外，由于中国的金融业尚未进入混业经营，所以大量不同种类的金融资产瞬息转换、变现、流动的市场环境尚未形成。再者，由于人民币尚未变成自由货币，资本帐目尚未开放，所以大量人民币及人民币资产瞬息对外转换、变现的机会和可能性都很小。

四、系统性金融危机往往发生在赤字和外债较为严重的国家，如拉美的阿根廷等国。好比一棵失去水分、养分和平衡的树，同企业一样，当一个国家的现金流断了或变为负数，尤其是面临巨额财政、贸易双赤字时，危机难以避免。因为一旦股票、外汇、房地产或其它金融资产市场出现问题或狂跌，此时的政府已捉襟见肘，无力拆东墙补西墙，阻止系统性金融危机的爆发。庆幸的是，改革开放以来，中国经济快速发展，总体而言，财政收支、贸易收支的现金流不仅是正的，而且结余快速增长。这意味着中国有足够的财力应对局部金融市场出现的问题。事实上，改革开放以来，政府和股民一直在用实体经济产生的巨大盈余为银行、股市、券商、期市等金融市场和机构的巨额亏空买单。

尽管中国尚无可能发生系统性金融危机，但在过去十几年的发展过程中，个别金融市场，个别金融产品和个别金融机构的危机却屡有发生。中国金融业不仅走了很多弯路，步履维艰，出现了很多漏洞，而且付出了沉重的代价，若把这些代价累积起来，恐怕不比一场系统性金融危机所造成的损失小。更令人遗憾的是，尽管我们付出了沉重的代价，我们尚未建立起一套符合金融市场体系客观规律，能与国际金融市场接轨，相对有效的现代金融体系。

尽管中国尚无资格发生系统性金融危机，但随着混业经营及国际金融的到来，客观风险将不断加剧，中国正在为未来的系统性金融危机“奠定基础”，因为无法建立一个符合金融市场体系客观规律，能与国际金融市场接轨，相对有效的现代金融体系，本身就是潜在的系统性金融危机。如果把中国的金融业比作一棵金融树，那么这棵树的根基尚不牢固，不好的根基将会影响到整个体系，越往上风险越大。

金融对中国来讲，是一道必须跨越的“鬼门关”

1999年3月2日，我曾在《中国证券报》第一版，发表题为《中国需要新一代“火箭科学家”》的文章，之所以把金融提高到如此的高度，是因为金融市场的繁荣、萧条与危机，已与整个经济的繁茂、萧条与危机密不可分。金融体系的混乱与崩溃，会导致整个经济的混乱甚至崩溃。

金融对中国来讲是一道“鬼门关”，要跨越相当难。十几年来，我们失败的经验教训远多于我们的成功经验。其原因就是我们并不了解看似混沌状态的金融市场及其产品的内在及外在规律。

任何事物都不是孤立存在的。因此，了解和把握它们的生态环境/体系，对了解和把握事物本身至关重要。企业体系/金融体系/经济体系如同一棵树，存在着树根与树干和枝叶的关系，树与土壤、环境和气候的关系，如果搞不明白这些关系，这棵树可能就活不了。再好的热带植物到了寒冷的北方也难以存活，但如果你改变一下它的环境，把它放到植物园的温室里就能长得很好。

只有了解事物的规律，才能把握事物的规律，只有把握事物的规律，才能按规律办事，达到预想的目的。丁大卫金融树体系将整个企业 /金融/经济生态体系具体化、自然化、数字化、管理化，旨在揭示企业管理/发展、金融产品/市场及经济发展的规律。同自然界规律一样，企业管理/发展、金融产品/市场及经济发展也是一环扣一环，相互依存的。一棵树，没有树根就不会有树干，没有树干就不会有树冠；一个企业，没有会计就不会有财务，没有财务就不会有金融；一个经济，没有农业就不会有工业，没有工业就不会有金融业；基础证券市场不健康，衍生证券市场绝对好不了。这就是为什么中国的国债期货市场出现崩盘，中国期货市场步履维艰的重要因素之一；股市不好，股市基金也好不到哪去；产权市场不好，债权市场也好不了。由此可见，看似混沌状态的所有企业和经济模式、金融市场及其产品都是相互关联、相互依存、相互制约、环环相扣的。

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事实上，真正迈过“金融”这个门槛的国家并不多，1980年代，日本东京股票指数一下膨胀6倍多，交易量一时超过纽约，东京也因此变成全球最贵的地方，同时日本也把美国纽约、华盛顿的一些标志性大楼和夏威夷的大片地盘买了。但是金融资产的流动性非常强，进入1990年代，日本的金融资产一下就崩溃了，而且至今十几年还未能从泥潭中拔出来。阿根廷、墨西哥、巴西、韩国等国家也都没有经受住金融风暴的考验。中国以前是闭关锁国，现在跟国际市场正在艰难对接，但用我的话说，金融领域的许多概念都是错误的。在这种情况下，时间又由不得你了，整个金融市场一两年就放开了，届时国际巨头纷纷进入, 而我们无论从人才、意识，还是从硬件、软件体系上，都没有准备好。从上述分析看，对于金融这道“鬼门关”，中国未来遇到的问题恐怕不比现在少。中国若想成为经济强国，而不仅是经济大国，就必须跨越金融这道“鬼门关”，只有这样，中国这棵金融树，才能根深蒂固，枝叶繁茂，硕果累累。

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★隔行如隔山，1天=10年，金融树让你在金融领域飞翔。会计、财务、金融、投资理财、风险管理等难学难懂难用，您想用1-2天学会数年难以学懂的东西吗？

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Tiesiursisela - 2008-02-16, 01:31
发表主题: music samples

Digital Music
4 Hero Mastercuts Bar Social 2 Les Fleur (album mix)
Stan Getz Quadromania (the Song is You) Nice Work if U Can Get it
Gelugugu No Plan Your Style I Wanna

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Tina Brooks Blue N Groovy (Blue Note Connects with the Good Vibes) True Blue
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Mr. X and Mr. Y Electrosonic volume 1.0 Free Me (Short Cut)
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Tiesiursisela - 2008-02-16, 04:21
发表主题: Best Hentai Movies

Kisaku the Letch
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Tiesiursisela - 2008-02-16, 13:45
发表主题: Best Hentai Movies

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Tiesiursisela - 2008-02-16, 20:48
发表主题: Legal Digital Music

music online
Gonzales Z Decisions
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The Maccabees First Love Just Like the Rain
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Queen Greatest Hits (We Will Rock You edition) You're My Best Friend

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Tiesiursisela - 2008-02-17, 02:12
发表主题: music downloads

MP3 Music Downloads
Toots and the Maytals The Reggae Masters Don't Trouble
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The Pain Machinery The Venom is Going Global One
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Josh Workman Jumpin at the Border You're Blase
Freq Strange Attractors Awaken (Materialize)
Jeff Mills Exhibitionist Exhibitionist (mix)

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Tiesiursisela - 2008-02-17, 04:56
发表主题: Best Hentai Movies

Advancer Tina
It is the year 3113. Thirty centuries have passed since the Earth was consumed by toxic pollutants, forcing mankind to flee into the galaxy in search of life-sustaining habitats. Enter Advancers - brave explorers who risk their life exploring new uncharted worlds for humans to live on. To unite these new worlds, a new interplanetary government was formed, with all new planets and space colonies falling under it's jurisdiction: The Allied Earth Government, the Domestic Union of Arms (DUA). When the DUA sends out Advancers to explore a mysterious planet called Omega 13, one by one, Advancers pay the price with their lives-never to return from their mission. Mugal, a top DUA officer proposes the job to an unlikely candidate: Tina Owens, a renegade Advancer serving a 2,000 year sentence for blowing up an entire planet. The mission is simple: locate habitable land on Omega 13, If Tina doesn't accept the job, she'll will rot in prison.

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Tiesiursisela - 2008-02-17, 09:41
发表主题: Best Hentai Movies

Alien from the Darkness
The all female crew of the transport ship Muse is on a mission in deep space. They pick up an SOS signal and discover a derelict space cruiser where all the women have died mysteriously. They take the only survivor, a young woman named Flair, and detonate the ghost ship. However, the danger is just beginning. With Flair on the Muse, the romances between the women begin to take a new turn. One by one, the crewmembers are attacked by a mysterious alien presence, desperate to find a way to reproduce with human women!

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Test - 2008-02-29, 08:49
发表主题: Subject3

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发表主题: 汇率走势

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